Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Why you can always produce a bogus model

Suppose you have real data in a range but want to prove bogus data. It can always be done by introducing a fudge factor.

Your real data will produce a line on a graph. The bogus data would be another line totally unrelated to the first. How do you make them match? By introducing a third fudge factor line that is the difference between the first two and adding that to the real data. The equation that produces that fudge factor line might be complicated or not, but it always exists.

But what happens when you go beyond the range of the initial graph? The illusion is broken because that fudge factor line is unlikely to produce the same bogus result outside the original range.

This is climate science models in a nutshell.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Did they intend to mislead?

As always. They want you to believe Trump is starving old folks.

Also, enforcing the law scares people... it's supposed to.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Capitalism in Space

A paper by Robert Zimmerman.

The most compelling point of the paper is how non-controversial his conclusions are. The saddest thing is our political environment is such that it may have no impact.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Sticking to facts

Fixing healthcare insurance

Start with the solution. But consider some issues:

Republicans will make a huge mistake replacing ObamaCare with TrumpCare (ObamaCare Lite.) The Democrats own ObamaCare, so the idiot RINOs want to take over responsibility for this load of crap? It makes absolutely no sense.

The right solution in the link above leaves remaining problems that should be addressed.

  1. The transition shouldn't create more hardship for people that were screwed by ObamaCare. Before ACA people lost insurance they may not be able to get back because they developed pre-existing conditions they didn't have before.
  2. Low income people should have a separate solution since insurance is a business. As a business consumers get the best deals when those businesses are competing for customers. A voucher for low income folks would allow them to get some of the same benefits and still encourage competition for those customers.
  3. People that can't get insurance for any other reason should have an option outside the insurance industry which is better than just showing up at an emergency room.
Trying to solve everything with a universal solution is a mistake that opens up the political can of worms. Republicans will pay for this mistake if they remain too stupid to avoid it.